Study suggests ANC likely to only retain majority in 2 provinces after 2029 general elections

JOHANNESBURG - A recent study suggests the African National Congress (ANC) is likely to only retain its majority in two of the country’s nine provinces after the 2029 general elections.

This is detailed in the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection’s latest report on coalition governments.

The report analyses trends before and after 2024’s general elections, and highlights where the country seems to be headed.

Since the first ever democratic election, the ANC has lost its majority in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and the Northern Cape.

A report by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection suggested the party was also likely to lose its electoral majority in the Free State and Mpumalanga come 2029.

Leader researcher, Susan Booysen, pointed out that while the North West was historically an ANC stronghold, trends showed that the province was also on the edge.

"Only Limpopo and the Eastern Cape seem to be secure enough at this stage, come the next election. If the current trends over South Africa’s elections since 1994 continue, further provinces could possibly become coalitions in the next elections."

She said current trends indicated that coalitions were here to stay.

She also argued that provincial coalitions appeared to be far more stable than the one at national level.