Iran war exposes uncertainty over what replaces rules-based order

The war involving Iran and the appointment of a new supreme leader have intensified debate about whether the global rules-based order still exists.

As the conflict gathers pace, analysts are questioning whether international politics has shifted to a system where power alone determines outcomes.

The discussion comes amid growing scrutiny of the United States and other major powers, and whether the international system created after World War II ever truly restrained them.

Was the rules-based order ever real?

Associate Professor of Statecraft and Policy at the African School of Governance, TK Pooe, said the idea of a rules-based order after World War II was rooted in hope rather than a system that consistently worked.

Following the war, the world established institutions such as the United Nations to prevent future global conflict.

But Pooe said the system was never universally accepted.

“It was hope,” he said, adding that the global system often made sense for some countries but not necessarily for others, particularly in the Global South.

He said the historical context of decolonisation and the rise of powers such as China meant that not all states viewed the post-war global order in the same way.

US power and global rules

Questions about the effectiveness of the rules-based order have intensified amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

Critics argue that powerful countries have frequently acted without meaningful consequences.

Pooe said the pattern stretches back decades.

“If you go straight to Vietnam… clearly it didn’t work,” he said, adding that conflicts such as the Korean War also raised questions about whether global rules ever truly constrained major powers.

According to Pooe, recent developments are exposing realities that have long existed.

He said former US president Donald Trump’s approach to international politics may simply be “a more vulgar expression of how it really works”.

Global system ‘dying’ without replacement

Despite growing criticism of the rules-based order, analysts say there is still no clear alternative global system.

Pooe pointed to the World Trade Organisation as one of the few mechanisms that allowed smaller countries to challenge larger economies.

But he said even those structures have weakened over the past decade.

“We know it’s dying,” he said of the existing system.

“We just don’t know what’s yet to replace it.”

That uncertainty, he added, is creating anxiety among governments and policymakers around the world.

What it means for South Africa

The shifting geopolitical landscape is also raising questions about South Africa’s foreign policy.

For years, the country positioned itself as a moral voice on the global stage, drawing on its transition from apartheid and the legacy of Nelson Mandela.

But Pooe said foreign policy cannot be built on moral standing alone.

“You do not build a foreign policy… on the niceties of life,” he said.

Instead, he argued that countries must focus on national interests and economic strength.

Focus on the Southern African region

Pooe said South Africa should prioritise its role within the Southern African region.

He warned that the country is currently in a weaker historical position compared with other parts of Africa.

He argued that South Africa needs to focus on strengthening the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and improving regional economic integration.

Among his proposals was merging the Department of International Relations and Cooperation with the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition to strengthen economic diplomacy.

He also called for greater coordination between the government and the private sector when South African companies expand into the region.

Military and infrastructure capacity

Pooe said stronger state institutions and infrastructure investment across Southern Africa would also be necessary.

He argued that the country needs a functioning military and stronger state-owned entities capable of leading large-scale infrastructure projects in the region.

He added that leadership and governance reforms within South Africa would be critical.

“The world will move on,” he said.

“And that’s the one thing we have to be absolutely clear about.”

For more detailed information, listen to Pooe using the audio player below: