Economists forecast uptick in Q2’s economic activity when Stats SA releases GDP figures

JOHANNESBURG - Some economists have forecast an uptick in economic activity in the second quarter of 2025 when Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) releases the latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Tuesday.

The country’s economy started 2025 on a sluggish note with a poor 0.1% growth in the first quarter.

The anticipated momentum is expected to come from rebounds in mining and manufacturing.

Energy, mining and manufacturing improved in the three months through June, supported by little to no load shedding and driven by reasonable global demand and rising domestic demand.

Mining output rose 3.9% in Q2 after contracting 4.1% in Q1, driven mainly by Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), gold and chromium ore.

Manufacturing production increased by 1.6%, its strongest quarterly gain since Q2 of 2023.

Economists at Nedbank believe agriculture is likely to have moderated from its strong start.

Favourable weather conditions kept crops and horticulture positive, while struggles with animal diseases remained a drag on livestock.

Despite a better performance expected in the period under review, some economists have warned it’s not enough to pull the economy out of stagnancy.

Experts expect GDP growth of 1% for the whole year, averaging 1.5% over the next three years.

“We expect the economic recovery to gain moderate pace in the second half of the year. Our forecast is for GDP growth of 1% for the whole year, averaging 1.5% over the next three years.”