Elections 2024: As the dust settles, the ANC is faced with multiple scenarios

JOHANNESBURG - As the dust settles from the seventh democratic elections, the African National Congress (ANC), which enjoyed the status of being the country’s majority party for 30 years, finds itself faced with multiple scenarios, as it deliberates on the way forward.

 
The polls delivered a devastating blow for the former liberation movement, with it achieving just 40% support at the polls, it also lost its outright majority in multiple provinces including Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Northern Cape.

The 2024 electoral outcome has confirmed what some have described as a “turning point,” in South Africa’s democratic history. This will see parties, which have struggled to work together effectively at local government having to now find each other at both provincial and national level.

Eyewitness News (EWN) spoke to several leaders in the ANC on considerations of the way forward.

“We have to be open to doing whatever it takes to hold onto the Union Buildings,” is the immediate response one ANC top official told EWN, when asked about the way forward.

The leader made a case for the organisation to work with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and former president Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto WeSizwe (MK) party, this is despite public remarks from Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile that they would never work with the ANC.

It’s understood for the MK party to support the former liberation, it would demand ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa’s head, a request likely to be shut down by the ANC.

And while the party is open to “being prepared” to batter on almost anything to remain at the helm nationally, it prefers for Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi to be allowed to remain the first citizen of the country’s economic hub.

“We would never swap CR [Cyril Ramaphosa] to satisfy Zuma,” one national executive committee (NEC) member said.

When it comes to the red berets, which have over 1.5 million votes on offer, many have expressed a desire to avoid a partnership with the organisation, claiming it's too difficult a relationship to maintain.

The EFF has worked with the Democratic Alliance (DA) at local government level in the past and is currently in a working relationship with the ANC across several metros.

“These are the most prominent losers of these elections,” one national executive committee member told EWN, arguing that it simply wasn’t worth the headache to pursue a relationship with the fighters.

But the official disagrees, the leader claims the red berets’ current performance has humbled the 11-year-old organisation, which will make it easier to negotiate a coalition.

“In fact, through this, we would better control the Ekurhuleni situation, we can rein in Julius [Malema] through this,” says the ANC official.
Malema, like the DA has made public pronouncements expressing a desire to work with the ANC.

While the idea of a government of national unity has been proposed, much like one which ushered the democratic dispensation three decades ago, others in the ANC are pushing for a grand coalition with the DA, arguing that this would bring more stability to the country.

During the week, ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe told journalists, the grand coalition is what markets are hoping would come out of these elections.

“That will make the markets happy,” he simply remarked when asked of the way forward.

The ANC has said it's willing to talk to anyone.

NEC members who are also toying with different scenarios questioned how a relationship with the DA would work, arguing that the main opposition is an organisation opposed to some of the ANC’s core ideals such as affirmative action, broad-based black economic empowerment, its preferential procurement policies and the expropriation of land without compensation.

Concerns against a grand coalition, despite it being seen as possibly the most stable agreement to take the country forward is that both parties could alienate some of their core supporters, resulting in more bleeding in the next election. 
The two parties; ANC and DA would still not have sufficient numbers to keep Zuma’s organisation out of power in KZN.

This is where the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) comes into the equation, with it being seen as a possible partner in the possible coalition.

A second NEC member suggested that it was best for the ANC to move forward as a minority government, which will rely on trade-offs and negotiations around core issues like the electing of a president and the passing of a budget.

EXTERNAL INTERESTS

Independent analyst Lukhona Mguni says as Ramaphosa and the ANC hold deliberations, in a bid to build a consensus on the different scenarios at play, his party would also have to consider external factors. These include interests from across society in general, including business and civil society. 
He says multiple competing interests are at play during this period. 
Parties have just 14 days to cobble together a government.

“There will also be international interests, some countries will probably actively call the sitting president to say with what has happened in your election, we think that you should move in this particular direction. It may well be that he will seek council from those of his counterparts across the globe who have been in this situation of putting together coalitions,” said Mguni.

Mguni says parties will need to also think about what is in the best interests of the country, which might not serve their respective organisations’ interests. 

“They have a delicate responsibility to walk a tightrope of self-preservation but also signalling to the country that they are serious and taking the country seriously,” he said.

Another independent analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga says the idea of a grand coalition is not far-fetched.

“DA has already made a bold and interesting move to say they are willing to work with the ANC if that means the ANC can be saved from working with the EFF,” he says.

Mathekga says the DA is seeking to make itself attractive, suggesting its criticism of the ANC over the years, has been purely for the sake of the country’s stability and that it's willing to work with it in order to ensure there’s progress.

ANC INTERNAL RUCTIONS

While some in the ANC are curious as to what the devastating outcome means for their party’s president, this with some already questioning if he would walk away from the job or take bold steps to address leaders who have not aided the governing party’s cause, including its KZN provincial executive company, which is led by Siboniso Duma and Bheki Mtolo.

“CR can’t leave, it will throw the party into disarray, we won't let him resign,” another NEC member told EWN.

Some NEC members say they will deal with Ramaphosa and his top officials’ leadership once the coalitions have been finalised. This amid rumours in the ANC that some want to bring forward an early national general council to express their dissatisfaction with the current crop of leaders and possibly a push for an early conference.

“That is not going to happen, we simply don’t have the money for such things,” said an ANC top official, shutting down the conversation.

Of the NEC members who spoke to EWN, at least three want to revisit the ANC’s approach to the launch of Zuma’s MK party, raising concerns about the lack of urgency to attend to matters that in the long run have had a dire impact on the organisation.

Mguni also warns of internal ructions affecting this delicate period of coalition talks.

“What we need to find out is the strength of Cyril’s own power brokers as well as the appetite to defend him, including Gwede Mantashe. Are they still in Cyril Ramaphosa’s corner,” he asked.

 
MULTIPARTY CHARTER - DEAD ON ARRIVAL?

Meanwhile, the DA is also set to sever ties with some of its Multi-Party Charter (MPC) partners, following its failure to achieve enough support to possibly go into government.

The MPC met on Saturday, with ActionSA describing the gathering as frustrating. It's accusing the DA of reneging on its deal and trying to take both the IFP and Freedom Front Plus with it, as it seeks a power-sharing deal with the ANC.

‘A lot of the meeting centred around the question of which political party would stay true to the declaration of intent of political parties not entertaining a working relationship with the ANC going forward,” says ActionSA’s Micheal Beaumont.

While most MPC partners recognise the project has failed, it's yet to meet again later this week to supposedly formalise the dissolution of the partnership.