Why the rand is back above R19 to the dollar
Upcoming elections in South Africa and the USA are almost certainly impacting on the volatile Rand
Picture: EWN
Bruce Whitfield speaks to Matete Thulare, Head of FX Execution at RMB.
There are two things you can never predict with utmost certainty.
The outcome of an election, and forecasting how the Rand will fair against major currencies, particularly the U.S dollar.
Both increasingly appear to be based on emotion and scenarios, rather than cold, hard facts.
There are such contrasting scenarios forecast by economists, with all seeming possible given how volatile the South African currency has behaved in the past.
On Monday, the Rand traded above R19 to the dollar, having been below that mark for most of April.
Matete Thulare, Head of FX Execution at RMB says it's going to be an interesting period for the Rand in the lead up to the elections on 29 May.
He says it's hard to forecast how the political situation will impact the currency.
"Nobody knows...we are seeing a variety of forecasts. There are a lot of assumptions and scenarios."
- Matete Thulare, Head of FX Execution - RMB.
"...how skittish and volatile things are going to be over the next few weeks, especially when we lead up into the elections. Obviously when we see the news trickling in from the IEC obviously with regards to the percentages that the respective parties will be getting."
- Matete Thulare, Head of FX Execution - RMB
"We need not forget, we are approaching an interesting time of the year, where it is called in the financial market, 'sell in May and go away'. It's going to be a tricky month of May for us."
- Matete Thulare, Head of FX Execution - RMB
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