MANDY WIENER: Zuma’s MK Party – spent force or sleeper coalition partner?

Anything is possible in politics. But that also means that politics requires us to legitimise conspiracy theories as at least potentially possible.

I have been grappling with one such ‘conspiracy theory’ that appears to have been floating around and gaining traction over the past few days.

Could it be possible that the establishment of the MK Party, and former President Jacob Zuma’s association with it, is all a ruse to gather those voters who are disenchanted with the ANC but… after the elections, MK will go into coalition with the ANC and effectively return those voters to the governing party.

This is an election in which every single vote counts and the real question is whether the ANC will fall below 50%. If it comes in just below that mark, it will have to turn to smaller kingmaker parties such as the Patriotic Alliance or Al Jama-ah to get it over the line and keep Ramaphosa in the Union Buildings. It could also turn to MK.

The idea of the ANC somehow passively endorsing the establishment of a splinter party, which nogal carries the name of its armed wing, is so far-fetched it cannot possibly be true. 

The theory is perhaps an attempt to rationalise how someone like Zuma, who has been so deeply loyal to the ANC for most of his life, is now actively campaigning against it.

Surely, MK must be a sleeper coalition party ultimately acting in the interests of keeping the ANC in power?

No. Negative. Not possible.

The converse argument is that the MK party and Zuma going rogue is more likely a fart in the wind. Zuma is an octogenarian with a criminal record who has already served two terms as President and cannot constitutionally be elected as the country’s number one again.  Is the man who once wielded enormous power and influence over the African National Congress now a spent force with a marginal constituency?

According to a favourability poll released last week by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), Zuma is still very, very popular. The poll was conducted last year before Zuma announced that he would campaign and vote for the MK Party.

Voters in his home province of KwaZulu Natal believe he is the best president the country has had since Nelson Mandela.

According to the SRF, Zuma’s favourability score is 28.9% amongst all registered voters on a national level and 63.1% amongst all registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal. “The foundation’s estimate is that Mr Zuma’s new political venture might at best shave just a few political points off­ the ANC’s support base,” it said.

The ANC has been mulling over how to deal with the Zuma problem and has been dilly-dallying on acting against him since December. It cannot risk expelling him entirely and face the prospect of creating a monster outside of its ranks.

Now that Zuma has been formally suspended by the ANC, the party’s spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri is downplaying how costly that move could be in election votes.

“We are not fearful of the impact of this particular decision. We take it on the chin we are going to be on the ground reassuring our members including those who really did believe in Jacob Zuma,” she told me on The Midday Report this week.

Just like the Cope breakaway and other splinter parties, she acknowledges that ‘there is always an impact’ but it is the extent of the impact that is now the subject of conversation. 

“We don’t believe that many people that love Jacob Zuma, love him more than they love the ANC. Let me leave it at that,” Bhengu-Motsiri said emphatically.

Zuma’s MK Party may not cost the ANC swathes of votes nationally. In KZN, that could be a different story. The theory of the fledgling coalition party somehow secretly endorsed by the ANC is far-fetched. While Zuma, the wily old politician, may not be able to orchestrate a Presidential comeback like Lula or (maybe) Trump, he may yet emerge as a kingmaker when the ANC needs him most.