MANDY WIENER: Theme for 2024 is uncertainty. Isn’t it?

When I stand up on stage and talk to audiences in South Africa, one of the first questions I ask is “How are you feeling about the country right now?”

Responses usually range across the spectrum. The one I am getting most right now, in public and in private, is “uncertain”. The zeitgeist seems to be one of being generally unsure. 

That is not surprising considering it is an election year. Uncertainty peaks during polls. More than that however is the fact that it is an election year that could bring with it a significant change in the political landscape after thirty years of ANC rule. 

But the sentiment extends beyond just local politics. There is uncertainty about South Africa’s international standing and diplomatic relations, around economic policy, domestic issues and what our future holds. 

It’s the kind of uncertainty that we felt in the final minutes of the rugby World Cup final. Or as the clock ticked down in the fifth round of Dricus du Plessis’s title fight. In both instances, we won by one point. It was success by the tightest of margins. 

To extend that sporting analogy, it is as if we are anticipating what could happen this year and considering various scenarios that could play out. Will we overcome and find a path out or we will spiral beyond repair?
 
In terms of domestic politics, anecdotally, the electorate is largely uncertain about who to vote for and whether to vote at all. There has been a considerable decline in voter turnout over previous elections, a slow rate of voter registration and a general discontentment with politicians following decades of poor service delivery, internal party disputes and widespread corruption. 

With more than 560 political parties contesting the elections, there are various permutations of what could happen. A multi-party government is likely and various polls are putting the ANC at below 50% which means a coalition. There is uncertainty at what cost that could come and what concessions would have to be made to cling to power. 

There is also uncertainty as to whether our institutions can recover sufficiently and put a halt to continued erosion. Has the intervention by the private sector on various workstreams been sufficient to get the ports and rail networks back on track, to address fundamental problems with crime fighting and to solve the energy crisis?

Can Eskom rid itself of extraction networks and cartels, can loadshedding be kept to a minimum, and can extra generation capacity be added to the grid? The much-anticipated draft Integrated Resource Plan has drawn a lukewarm response from analysts.

At the NPA, can the Investigating Directorate bring additional state capture cases to trial and successfully prosecute them? Has enough been done to remedy the causes of FATF’s greylisting of the country last year?

The current administration under President Cyril Ramaphosa ends its term with unfinished business and a lack of certainty. 

This is perhaps most evident in the debate around National Health Insurance. 

The NHI Bill has been approved by the National Council of Provinces and the portfolio committee on health and now just requires the President’s signature. There has been considerable resistance to the bill, yet Ramaphosa has suggested that it will be signed in its current guise. It’s unlikely though that this will be finalised before the end of this administration leaving the question hanging. Yet more uncertainty. 

Our country’s international policy positions have also been the source of much consternation. Contradictory and hypocritical, the alignment to Brics and Russia specifically, have placed relations with major trade partners specifically the US under strain with doubts cast on AGOA, the African Growth and Opportunity Act. However, AGOA was extended beyond 2025 at the November summit in Johannesburg last year. 

South Africa’s pursuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice has also drawn a line in the sand in terms of our foreign policy. This week 210 members of Congress in the US signed a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken blasting SA’s case at the ICJ and denouncing its ‘hostile stance’. 

The North West University Business School Policy Uncertainty Index for the fourth quarter of 2023, released in early January, shows that the PUI remains well in negative territory. It has eased from the third quarter but negative factors such as a bleak economic outlook and other cumulative headwinds are driving uncertainty. Consumer confidence is the lowest it has been in decades. 

Certainty could come in the President’s State of the Nation Address in February and the Finance Minister’s budget address. But expect the theme of uncertainty to persist through the election season.