Rand dollar exchange rate
Rand steady ahead of expected GDP plunge
The rand fell nearly 1% on Monday to end at R16.7575 as nervousness about the GDP figure and low liquidity with United States markets closed for a national...
A return of nationwide power cuts last week by state utility Eskom, coupled with signs of tension inside the ruling African National Congress, and fears of deep recession have seen the rand lag gains by its emerging market peers.
The greenback has regained some ground in the last two sessions after a dip to a 28-month low earlier this week.
The rand has struggled for momentum in recent sessions, despite global demand for risk currencies spurred by dimming hopes of a quick recovery in the United States economy and some jitters heading into US elections in November.
On Wednesday the dollar had bounced higher, with data in the world’s no.1 economy showing firmer manufacturing activity, easing some of the fears that the COVID-19 induced decline in global growth might last for longer than initially hoped for.
The rand had tumbled more than 2% on Monday following speculation that infighting within the ANC would prompt cabinet changes.
The rand’s rally was however restrained by intensified infighting within the ruling ANC as the party headed into a weekend meeting with opposing factions lashing out at each other over corruption, leading to speculation over possible cabinet changes.
The rand’s gains came despite data showing an $8 billion budget deficit in July, and research from a science council showing 2020 had seen the worst power cuts on record.
The rand’s weakness also comes as the latest local consumer and producer inflation figures show an uptick in prices, but not by enough to dampen expectations of further monetary policy easing.
South Africa’s headline consumer price inflation quickened to 3.2% year-on-year in July from 2.2% in June. Market expectations were for a 3.1% rise, well within the central bank’s target of 3-6%.
Some investors use the rand as a proxy for emerging market risk, which means it tends to gain strongly when such assets are in favour, as has been the case recently with rock-bottom interest rates in developed markets.
Markets latched onto the US Food & Drug Administration’s 'emergency use authorisation' for the use of blood plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 as a treatment for the disease.
The dollar was weighed down by concerns over the strength of a US economic recovery following weaker-than-expected jobs data.
The readout of last month’s Fed meeting gave few clues about whether a more dovish shift in policy is possible in the coming months, helping to ease recent selling pressure on the dollar.
With no major domestic data releases this week, the rand is likely to react to international news such as the release later on Wednesday of US Federal Reserve minutes from its most recent meeting.
The US dollar fell against a basket of major currencies for a fifth consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level in over two years, under pressure from low yields and bleak economic data in the United States.
Hospitality shares rallied, with hotels, gaming and entertainment giant Sun International Ltd up around 8% and City Lodge Hotels Ltd up 9% at the close.
The currency hit a one-week high of R17.3325 before trimming the gains, with market sentiment weighed by concerns over the return of power cuts at a time when economic activity is being stifled by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rand firmed against the dollar on Thursday as hopes of more economic stimulus in the United States waned, although fresh power cuts in South Africa limited its currency’s gains.