Inflation expectation for 2027 forecast to tick up to 4.7% from 4.6%

JOHANNESBURG - Inflation expectations are slightly back up, with the forecast for 2027 putting inflation at 4.7% from 4.6%.

The Bureau for Economic Research released the latest inflation expectation data on Monday, which is a key gauge for what inflation trends could look like in the future.

The poll by the Stellenbosch-based firm comes ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee meeting to decide on the repo rate.

READ: Inflation rises to 3.2% in January

The inflation expectation data is used by the reserve bank to guide its decision on policy rates.

A slight increase in expectations through to 2027 could see the central bank a little more cautious about how quickly and by how much it lowers the repo rate in its upcoming meetings.

Over the next five years, inflation expectations are set to stabilise at 4.7%, slightly above the targeted midpoint (of 4.5%).

But in the first quarter of the year, analysts, business people and unions downwardly revised their forecast of headline consumer inflation during 2025.

This was despite a slight uptick in reported annual inflation between the two survey periods from October to January.

It's now down to 4.3% from 4.5% for this year.

Stats SA will publish the latest inflation data on Wednesday while the reserve bank's MPC will announce the repo rate decision on Thursday.