MANDY WIENER: GNU breakup alarmist but lekgotla crucial to relationship reset
The Government of National Unity is still alive. Its ministers will meet for the Cabinet lekgotla in Pretoria on Wednesday afternoon.
The DA and ANC entered into an arrangement in the Government of National Unity. Image: GCIS
In her quintessential book about the 1994 transition from apartheid to democracy ‘Anatomy of a Miracle’, journalist Patti Waldmeir shares an anecdote about Cyril Ramaphosa.
She recalls how at the beginning of Codesa negotiations, the ANC and the National Party had made sure that the cards were stacked against Inkatha, by ensuring that Codesa’s 19 parties would make decisions by what was termed ‘sufficient consensus’.
“Officially, this was defined – by a process of circular reasoning – to mean the agreement of all those who needed to agree, to avoid a breakdown. But Cyril Ramaphosa gave me a far more blunt and accurate definition, only minutes after the deal on ‘sufficient consensus’ was struck. It means that, if we and the National Party agree, everyone else can get stuffed. Specifically, Inkatha could get stuffed,” wrote Waldmeir.
Thirty years later the concept of ‘sufficient consensus’ is again at the centre of multi-party negotiations and disagreements as the DA challenges the ANC’s understanding of the concept and the Statement of Intent which underpins the Government of National Unity.
That anecdote about Ramaphosa could have been written about him today, suggesting that other parties in the GNU can ‘get stuffed’ on contentious issues like NHI, Bela and the Expropriation Act.
The DA, the second largest party in the GNU, has repeatedly raised a grievance about the fact that Ramaphosa and the ANC are not consulting coalition partners and are running government as if it won a majority in the elections. The ANC, in turn, reminds the DA that the GNU is an ANC-led coalition, and these pieces of legislation were passed by the previous ANC-run administration.
In a post-Federal Council briefing on Tuesday, the DA’s leadership again made it clear that it would not be ‘reduced to mere bystanders in the GNU’.
“We remain committed to the GNU. We stand squarely behind the GNU as a way to grow the economy. There is renewed excitement about SA and GNU has already shown green shoots in Davos and elsewhere,” said leader John Steenhuisen.
Steenhuisen and President Ramaphosa met on Tuesday night to rekindle their relationship and to discuss some of the bubbling issues between the DA and ANC.
The dynamic between the two leaders is fundamental to the GNU working and the DA remaining inside the government. Many analysts have made the point that the success of the 1994 negotiations hinged on a successful working relationship between key leaders on either side. Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen do not quite seem to have buddied up – at least they haven’t gone fly-fishing ala Ramaphosa and Roelf Meyer.
What was clear from the DA’s briefing was that the party doesn’t want to leave the GNU, although the markets were spooked by Steenhuisen declaring a dispute over the weekend and requesting a reset of relations.
The DA has often been asked what the ‘red lines’ would be to force it out of government, and some of these have faded into pink lines. It is as if Ramaphosa and the ANC have worked out that they can bend them further than expected and are constantly pressure-testing the relationship.
The DA went into the GNU with eyes wide open and knew exactly what they were getting into. Helen Zille et al would have done scenario planning ad nauseam and they would have known full well that the Bela Bill, the NHI and the Expropriation Bill were coming down the pipeline. The ANC wouldn’t just abandon the legislation.
They must have accepted that they were going to have to do the dance of public protestation but would always remain within the GNU, as long as they felt they could make a tangible difference in growing the economy and improving service delivery. The DA is also willing to take what the ANC gives them to avoid what it sees as the terrifying alternative scenario of the EFF or MK coming into government.
Asked on Tuesday about the party’s red lines, Steenhuisen said that a walkout would only come when ‘the Constitution is trashed, and the economy has crashed’. He suggested that this could happen with the introduction of the NHI.
In its post-lekgotla briefing on Tuesday, the ANC hit back at the DA’s declaring a dispute over the Expropriation Bill.
“This thing about leaving the Government of National Unity is a bit like the little boy crying wolf,” said Fébé Potgieter, the ANC’s head of research and policy. “And I think that by the time you implement and there is really a wolf, you may find that nobody is listening because you've cried wolf so many times.”
A GNU breakup right now may be alarmist. But what happens at the cabinet lekgotla over the next few days will be crucial to establishing the dynamic within the government. The cabinet will be discussing the upcoming budget, the Medium-Term Development Plan, central to which is the NHI.
The ANC and Ramaphosa won’t be able to tell the DA to just get stuffed. The DA also can’t keep getting stuffed and just take it. Or can they if the stakes are worth it?