MANDY WIENER: What to keep an eye on in South Africa in 2025

As we get back to reality, this is what I’m watching in South Africa in 2025. 

The GNU – The dynamics of the Government of National Unity will continue to be tested. I don’t think the question is ‘Will the GNU hold?’ But I do believe it will be under continued strain. Both the ANC and DA, as well as other member parties, want the GNU to stay in place but they will each be flexing their respective muscles with a local government election on the horizon. Only a significant loss of electoral support and not a particular issue will see a party pulling out of the GNU. Previously opposition party Ministers will be eager to continue to outperform ANC Ministers to prove they can deliver on their mandates. The ‘clearing house’ will also be under scrutiny to resolve disagreements. NHI and the implementation of Bela will continue to be sticking points. 

Local Government Elections loading – There are no significant party elections or government elections in 2025 but local government elections are around eighteen months away. Expect an enormous focus on local government service delivery this year. We have already seen the ANC and DA arguing over service delivery in Cape Town during the ANC’s January 8 celebrations. This is just going to gain more traction. The ANC’s support declined considerably in the last local government elections and it will have to show the electorate that it can turn around performance at the municipal level. Joburg’s infrastructure decline and dreadful water and electricity supply will be central to this. The ANC will want to stem the narrative that it is fast becoming a rural party. 

The fight on the left and a weakened opposition – The ANC’s tripartite alliance partner the SACP has made it clear that it is not in favour of the GNU. It has also signalled its intentions to contest elections itself. The EFF and MK, as well as a faction of the ANC, are also vociferous about the GNU and will apply pressure to it. The EFF is also in the midst of an existential crisis as it haemorrhages support to MK. The MK’s internal strife is also defining the party as it continues to form its identity. 

G20 Presidency – South Africa’s Presidency of the G20 will likely consume a great deal of attention from the executive this year. We can expect this to dominate the calendar throughout the year, culminating in the main event in November. This is an opportunity for South Africa to place itself in the world’s focus and attract investors but it could also drain resources and shift attention from bread-and-butter delivery issues. 

The economy – After a decade of stagnant growth, economists are cautiously optimistic that the government will capitalise on post-GNU investor confidence. Some are predicting 2% growth. Others are more bullish, putting the marker as high as 3%. The Finance Minister has indicated that investment in major infrastructure projects will be the driver towards higher economic growth. “My role is to utilise fiscal policy to achieve certain desired outcomes. Infrastructure spending is the big change. We are shifting in focus to public infrastructure projects that support economic growth,” said the Minister last week. With both inflation and interest rates coming down, loadshedding absent and an improvement in logistics, signs are looking positive. 

Operation Vulindlela Phase Two – Phase one of Operation Vulindlela, the collaboration project between the National Treasury and the private sector, was a success. It accelerated structural reforms and saw improvements in energy availability, the performance of ports and railways, spectrum issues, visa backlogs and water licences. The GNU means the continuation of Vulindlela with Phase Two and the expectation is that this could be a major growth driver and clearer of bottlenecks.

The NPA and the Criminal Justice System – The Prosecuting Authority is under big, big pressure to deliver a state capture scalp. However, it is fighting this fight with one arm tied behind its back. It is continuously battling to get access to the State Capture database and is in desperate need of better funding and resources. Litigious accused are also draining the resources of the NPA. A big fish conviction will go a long way to improving public support.  

What’s worrying me this year? Water security and water quality. The rise of construction mafias and targeted assassinations. Whether we will get off the FATF greylist. Will the Proteas finally win an international trophy?