MANDY WIENER: Political aftershocks continue as tectonic plates shift the landscape

The shock results of the 29 May elections came like a rattling earthquake to some politicians in this country and the aftershocks continue. Each day arrives with some political tremor as the plates continue to shift, altering the political landscape in South Africa.

The Government of National Unity’s establishment was a fundamental reset of our politics. Parties have over the past few months reevaluated their identities and strategies to remain viable. 

This has manifested in some leaders having to dramatically flip flop. In some instances, they have quit the parties they founded to pursue better options. In other cases, they have done deals with the devil they swore to never entertain. All in the name of politics. 

Economic Freedom Fighters founding member and ex-Deputy President Floyd Shivambu’s decision to abandon the red ship and join the MK Party is an example. Shivambu said the move was a ‘political decision’ but Julius Malema, the Commander in Chief, said he did not believe that. Who woulda thunk it – Floyd Shivambu in MK green. 

The move has forced the EFF to evaluate its influence and status. It has also forced Malema to redefine what kind of leader he is. While initially he was magnanimous and emotionally vulnerable about the loss, within days the anger and resentment had set in, and his position had hardened. 

The MK with its newfound influence and support as the official opposition in Parliament and third biggest party in the country, has had to quickly establish structures and deploy MPs. Its process of finding itself has had to be expedited and this has been messy and the collateral damage extensive. MPs have been hired and fired, SGs have been appointed and removed and now an entirely new leadership committee has been announced. 

The DA (and other GNU parties) has found itself in government and is now having to reposition itself from a highly critical opposition party to a party in power. All of a sudden, DA cabinet ministers are exceedingly diplomatic in their descriptions of ANC colleagues. If the GNU is going to work, then they can’t be drumming on about how awful cadre deployment and the NHI is. 

The DA and the FF+, long-time partners in the Western Cape, have also now found themselves in marriage counselling. The FF+ had reportedly chosen to love it up with the ANC to remove the DA from some councils in the province even though they had a long-term relationship in place. This week the leaders of the DA and FF+, John Steenhuisen and Dr Pieter Groenewald, met and emerged with a joint statement reaffirming their alliance. 

It seems all the political parties are now stress-testing their existing relationships and attempting to assert themselves. 

Many of the smaller parties that had expected to do well in the elections but instead received diminished support, have been forced into limited options. This has also driven them into morally questionable decisions. 

ActionSA was one of the most vociferous parties on coalition agreements in the run-up to the elections. They swore time and again that they would never do a deal with the ANC. 

Lo and behold! What have we here…. Oh, just an agreement between ActionSA and the ANC in the City of Joburg. Curiously, Joburg is where ActionSA President Herman Mashaba has drawn most of his support historically. Yet he has now effectively kept an ANC mayor in office. He argues that this action will help to ‘stabilise’ the city. After years of dysfunction, all it will do is stabilise the dysfunction. All that ActionSA got out of the deal was the position of Speaker in the City and that is unlikely to bring with it much delivery to the residents. 

ActionSA has also said it would support such a deal in Tshwane with moves afoot by Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi and the ANC to hold a vote of no confidence in the DA mayor Cilliers Brink. Brink is there as part of a coalition remember, but now with all the realignment in play, no one's future is secured. 

We always knew that the landscape would not be the same after the May elections. We speculated about various scenarios that could develop. We are now seeing these play out in real time as individuals make moves for their political survival and place this above the interests of the electorate. 

But some scenarios we did not foresee because we gave politicians the benefit of the doubt. Yet, it is becoming increasingly evident that any option is on the table.