Reshaping of world order: Has SA somehow chosen 'the right side'?

There's ongoing speculation and also diverging views about whether, or when, China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy.

Ninety One consultant Michael Power argues that you could look at the global economy in a way that indicates China already overtook the US, around 2016.

What does this say about South Africa's much-maligned foreign policy choices of late?

Is there method in our 'madness', or is it a case of clever strategy in terms of the way the world is reshaping itself?

Ahead of the State of the Nation Address on Thursday, Bruce Whitfield talks to Power about his article published on Daily Maverick.

It's titled 'If we scrunch up our eyes and look at the global economy differently, a startling picture emerges'.

While Power believes any method in South Africa's alignment is probably unintended, its choice could be the most optimal one.

"The reality is, I think that South Africa has been - by virtue of its own history - rather navel gazing, in economics at least, since 1994...while the world has changed."

Michael Power, Consultant - Ninety One

One of the biggest factors counting against Washington, is its ballooning debt levels.

The problem is we tend to focus on places like China and India without focusing back on the 'granddaddy' of them all and realising that the US is in trouble, Power says.

"The US is letting debt run away from itself... We've seen debt for the government for instance going from $8 trillion to $34 trillion since just before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)."

"Even the likes of Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase CEO) are starting to warn that if this isn't reined in, there's going to be a crisis somewhere in the next decade. I'm a little bit less confident that it will last ten years."

Michael Power, Consultant - Ninety One

While China also has lots of problems that it is going to have to deal with, Power's view is that the country is trying to do this in a very responsible way

He's not sure he could say the same for the US, the analyst adds.

"I think that when you say South Africa is a pariah, much of that pariah status derives from the West and not the rest. I would argue, looking forward ten years, which side do you want to be on?"

"While it's not clear-cut to me, it's definitely NOT OBVIOUS that you should be on the side of the West because there are some big issues... The reality is that much of the West has become addicted to the idea of the welfare state... While China's demographics aren't good, the West's aren't either..."

Michael Power, Consultant - Ninety One