Chances of above normal rainy season in CT slim

Rainfall measured at the Cape Town Airport station was 53.2 millimetres in April above the average of 40 millimetres. However, Dr Peter Johnson says this is not significant.

FILE: Hail and sleet in Cape Town. Picture: EWN

CAPE TOWN – A University of Cape Town climatologist says based on current rainfall, the chances of an above normal rainy season in Cape Town are slim.

April has already seen "below average" rainfall.

Dr Peter Johnson says above normal rainfall in April usually precedes above average rainfall for the year.

Dr Peter Johnson says there's a very slim chance that Cape Town will receive above normal rainfall this year.

The South African Weather Service says the long-term average for the Kirstenbosch station in April is 88.3 millimetres. This year it was at 75.4.

Rainfall measured at the Cape Town Airport station was 53.2 millimetres in April above the average of 40 millimetres.

However, Johnson says this is not significant.

He adds that below normal rainfall by the end of May will likely result in below normal rainfall for the year.

“The total rainfall for this year, so far, has not been above normal. Therefore, according to our model, there’s a 5% chance that we’re going to have above normal for the rest of the year, and that’s a very small chance.”