Several polls suggest ANC could fall under 50% mark in Tshwane

Both an ENCA Ipsos Poll and an ANN7 Tracker Poll say the party will fail to reach a majority.

ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa visits the Drakeinteon Municipality on a two-day visit to the Western Cape ahead of the Local Government Elections on Wednesday. Picture: Xolani Koyana/EWN

JOHANNESBURG - As the various political parties campaign furiously this weekend, several polls suggest the African National Congress (ANC) could fall under the 50 percent mark in Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay.

Both an ENCA Ipsos Poll and an ANN7 Tracker Poll say the party will fail to reach a majority, while Johannesburg is safe for the ANC.

But the polls have been criticised after Ipsos said the ANC had the support of only 26 percent of people in Tshwane.

Ipsos political analyst Mari Harris says they know their poll can only report what their respondents say now and not predict the future.

"I'm prepared to be pretty embarrassed but the major thing is I think we'll have to keep in mind that the sampling is very important in this whole process as well."

While polling expert Paul Berkowitz says various polls have indicated who the swing voters are in this election.

"I think there's a general trend in this elections that there's a large percentage of erstwhile ANC voters that are conflicted about what they're going to do."

He says it's still difficult to predict what will actually happen on Wednesday.


With a new poll showing an unusually high number of voters still undecided about where to place their cross just days before the local government elections, political parties will be going all out to coax them off the fence.

Citizen Surveys has been tracking a sample of 1,300 South Africans over the age of 18 across the provinces in urban and rural areas.

The data suggests that between 14 and 15 percent of registered voters still have to make up their minds about whom to vote for next Wednesday.

The figures suggest a considerable swing vote that could make the difference to a party governing or being an also-ran in a municipality where its margins are slim.

Citizen Surveys' Daniel Moody said it's unusual to have so many voters wavering this close to voting.

"One argument there is that by saying I don't know, or I'm uncertain about who I will vote for come the election, what you're really doing is you kind of shake up the tree by indicating to polls like this that you're unhappy or dissatisfied with the ruling party or with any political party that's ruling a particular municipality in which you stay."

Moody said of those who said they would be voting, about 54 percent favoured the ANC.

The Democratic Alliance's share of the vote was projected at 17 percent, while for the Economic Freedom Fighters, it was 10 percent.