Crime stats could be useful in SA

Gareth Newham
South Africa’s crime situation has improved steadily over the past decade.  Since the 2002/03 financial year when total crime levels peaked in South Africa, the overall crime rate has decreased by 25%. Total crime rates decreased slightly by 2,6% to 2 016 316 cases recorded by the South African Police Service (SAPS) in 2011/12. This means that an average of 5 990 criminal cases are opened each day at police stations across the country.

It is important to remember that the most recent crime statistics do not provide any insight into the current crime trends or rates.  They only tell us about crimes that were recorded by the SAPS between 31 March 2011 and 1 April 2012. This means that the most recent figures available are already six months out of date. When it comes to the local precinct, level crime statistics, the crime situation could be very different from that presented by these statistics.

Compared to most countries in the world, the SAPS has a good crime analysis system in place and the police could report in a great deal more detail than they do. For over a decade, the country has suffered the effect of a bad policy decision to only report the crime statistics once a year. This decision was made for political reasons under Thabo Mbeki’s administration, to avoid criticism while crime rates were increasing and remains in force despite not being in the public interest. By the time the Minister of Police releases the statistics they are at least six months out of date and are not an accurate reflection of the present reality.  Every passing month sees their relevance diminish so that by the next release, the official crime statistics are already a year and half out of date.

The police correctly point out that they are not able to combat and prevent crime on their own and need partnerships to do so. However, this process is constrained because they are not able to share the latest crime statistics.  There are substantial public safety gains that would be possible if local and provincial government departments such as health, education and social welfare, non-government service providers, academic institutions, private companies and community based groups had up to date crime data to work with.  

The SAPS could also provide a far more detailed breakdown of crime than they do. For each crime registered on their Crime Analysis System (CAS), a wealth of detail concerning the location, time of day, circumstances, modus operandi, and perpetrators is included.  If the police worked in close partnership with academic institutions and research organisations, this data could result in a rich understanding  about how crime is perpetrated and how it is related to demographic and socio-economic factors such as urbanization, inequality ,  school drop out rates and access to social grants. This level of analysis is not necessary for policing purposes, but since the police are not in fact able to address the social risk factors for crime, it could help to build better prevention strategies. For example, Local governments could use this information to improve urban planning and development. Public health and social welfare service providers would also have a better idea where to locate their services and what types of demand to expect.

The government has nothing to lose and everything to gain by allowing the police to release crime statistics on a monthly basis. These could be posted on the notice board of each police station at the beginning of the month and released on the SAPS website. In this way meaningful partnerships could be developed to tackle crime at a local level where it will make the mot difference.

Gareth Newham is the head of the Crime and Justice Programme at the Institute for Security Studies.